971: How Critical Rare Earth Minerals Could Start the Next War

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Brian Nichols  0:07  
focusing on winning arguments, we're teaching the basic fundamentals of sales and marketing and how we can use them to win in the world of politics, teaching you how to meet people where they're at on the issues they care about. Welcome to The Brian Nichols Show. Well, hey there, folks. Brian Nichols here on another fun filled episode. Guests of The Brian Nichols Show. I am, as always, your humble host, joining from our lovely cardio miracle Studios here in sunny Eastern Indiana. The Brian Nichols Show is powered by, yes, the best heart health supplement in the world, cardio miracle. So if you want to learn how to lower your resting heart rate, lower your blood pressure while improving your pump at the gym. Stick around. We're gonna talk about that more later in today's episode. But first, we're going all the way over to the Middle East, and we're talking all things mineral deals, and I guess all that and more, I I'm not nearly prepared to have this conversation by myself, so joining me today to discuss all that and more is Farrell. Gregory Farrell, welcome to The Brian Nichols Show. How are you doing good? Doing very good. Thank you for having me. Great to have you, man. Thanks for joining us. I'm looking forward to digging into your article over at Real Clear world, the US Saudi cooperation could fortify critical mineral supply chains. We're going to discuss that. But first, do us a favor. Farrell, introduce yourself here to The Brian Nichols

Speaker 1  1:18  
Show. Audience, yeah, sure. So I'm a fellow at the foundation for American innovation. I also edit the emerging threats journal here at Oxford. And critical minerals have been an area of research for me for the last couple years. And you know, increasingly, it's become more and more interesting, more and more of a buzzword in news media. And I think that's not necessarily correlated with necessarily thorough analysis of the issue. It's a lot of high level stuff. But what I try to do in my piece is give some more depth as to how the Trump administration and Saudi Arabia might be able to collaborate in you know, our shared interest in realigning critical mineral supply chains.

Brian Nichols  2:04  
So and listen like I hear critical mineral supply chains. I know the audience does as well. They're like, Yeah, I've been hearing about this over in Ukraine. I guess we're hearing about it in Saudi Arabia. But I mean, feral elephant in the room. What? What is this whole thing about critical mineral supply chains. It sounds like, you know what I would need if I was, you know what? Health, Wellness, not like getting the minerals in my my food, I don't know. Like talk to us. What is the what are these critical minerals that we're talking about? And why is it so important for for America to have these supply chains built out, sure. So

Speaker 1  2:41  
there's I wouldn't I think that's actually a good comparison. It's not minerals for your food, it's minerals for your technology and basic and advanced manufacturing. It's for essential commercial applications and military usage. And when you get down into the specifics, it's about 50 minerals you could find on the periodic table, and then 17 rare earth elements. A lot of people conflate the two, and there's quite a lot of scientific detail that I don't necessarily have you know the full background to understand, which is why I talk to geologists as often as I do. So you know, I might not be able to tell you all the chemical differences between this prosium And this probium, but sorry, I was being a little smart

Brian Nichols  3:29  
ass there because I like, listen, elephant in the room. I know 95% of the audience who are listening. You're right. They're not geologists, right. I almost said botanist. I almost pulled the kendaji Brown and Jackson. They're like, what does a woman? I don't know. I'm sorry. I'm not a biologist or a botanist or a geologist. So in this case, it is very much like we read the news headline and then we go about our day, and people really don't take time to either dig beyond the headline or to actually, like, conceptualize why this is important. So we're talking about minerals, not that it goes into our breakfast cereal, but rather things that are actually helping America, helping the world really function and continue to advance from a technological standpoint. So let's talk about these, these mineral deals, right, and the supply chains therein that we're really trying to reinforce both with the agreement that you wrote about over at Real Clear world, over in Saudi Arabia, but also what was taking place over in Ukraine in recent months, where we saw President Trump and President Volodymyr Zelensky. I have a pretty Atte there at the Vatican. I think it was with Pope, Pope Francis. Yeah, Francis funeral. I was like, which Pope is it? Now? It's one of the Pope's the Pope's funeral. So we see right now that this is is becoming more of a real conversation that people are at least being aware of. So let's just set the stage here. Why is this important? Farrell,

Speaker 1  4:52  
sure, so I think there are a number of ways that you can divide up a list of, you know, 50 minerals and 17 rare earth elements. Let's say, you know. The basic fact is that they go into a number of these very essential technologies, manufactured products that we use, and what makes them different from other minerals or other raw materials that we use in those processes is the fact that their supply chains are in some way or another less secure than we would like them to be. So that either means we are very reliant on one site in a foreign country that could easily be disrupted. We are relying on a country that we don't entirely get along with. And the big elephant in the room is the degree to which we rely on China for some of the stuff. If you look at the US Geological Survey list of critical minerals, China is a primary supplier for almost half of them. And as we've seen the last couple of weeks, given these shifts in global trade, China instituted an export control onto seven rare earth elements, in addition to some controls that they put on mineral exports, such as antimony back in the fall, and the effect that that has is, you know, one, the possibility that it's harder to get certain products on shelves, harder to get certain, you know, inputs for manufacturing, because it just gets a lot more complicated trying to Get these minerals in situations where we're almost entirely reliant on China

Brian Nichols  6:24  
for them, what are these minerals go into feral like, where are we seeing the use cases of these applications?

Speaker 1  6:31  
Yeah. So, I mean, it'd probably be easier to find things that they don't go into, but it's really everything. So these very specialized alloys for fighter jets to ammunition to night vision goggles. I mean, that's just anti money. You can go into all sorts of areas. Cobalt goes into your batteries. Rare earth elements go into specialized magnets. And this is something I think people don't necessarily appreciate, which is that the total market value of some of these minerals is rather small. We're talking about millions of dollars rather than billions. But you have to think about the second order effects, if we lose access to them all of a sudden, without this one mineral that you've never heard of, we can't make ammunition, we can't make drones. We can't make this or that, and those second order effects would be devastating.

Brian Nichols  7:26  
Are these minerals unavailable in America? Uh,

Speaker 1  7:30  
it varies. Uh, that again, it's, you know, 50, uh, 50 different things. It varies quite a lot. But no, not necessarily. There are a number of minerals that we have in substantial quantities here in America, that, for you know, whole list of reasons we're not utilizing. Well,

Brian Nichols  7:48  
if we could, I don't mean to dig deeper, but that's my job. Um, let's dig a little bit deeper. Like, what are those minerals that aren't allowed? If you know, you had a list, that's great, but if not just help us understand, like, we have these minerals, why aren't we using them ourselves? Sure?

Speaker 1  8:02  
So there are a couple examples that just come to mind right now. So, like a great one is the Resolution Copper project in Arizona. If we were able to utilize that, that would be, I believe, the fourth largest copper mine in the world. Copper is on the list of critical minerals, and it's one of those ones where it's not rare necessarily, but these supply chains have a tendency to accumulate in certain places around the world, so that makes it a bit more difficult for us to bring it home. But one it is, you know, feasible. There is a company that is, you know, for years, major mining company been working to develop the Resolution Copper project, but they've just been tied down and puts in lawsuits. And, you know, permitting and permitting is a huge issue. Obviously for us. Believe it takes us an average of 17 years to permit a mine in America, which is one of the longest processes in the world. I think that points to something rather difficult for us, which is if other countries where the regulations are looser, but also the environmental protections at the same time are much worse, the same people who would say that we need to protect America's environment, which I very much agree with, are still comfortable relying on sources of minerals that are far, far dirtier than what we would do here.

Brian Nichols  9:34  
You mentioned feral like we're making these agreements with countries that you know maybe we're not best or friends with, right? So I guess I hear all that, and I'm I'm a little stuck, like, why don't we just, like, reprioritize like, let's get rid of the red tape. Let's focus on getting these rare earth minerals here in the United States, in our actual geographic area, versus going halfway, if not the full, way. Across the world, to Ukraine, to Saudi Arabia, to China, name your your favorite, you know, not so great country here, right? And then engage in these very, very, I would say, risky, not from a an outcome standpoint, but like, what we're having to probably sacrifice or put in place for guarantees or protections they're in, right? Like, it just feels like we're we're taking extra steps to make it more difficult than doing, not only the easier thing, but dare I say, the more like fruitful option, which just to be doing it here at home. No, yeah,

Speaker 1  10:35  
it's a good question. I think, in the case of Saudi Arabia, you know what I wrote in that article, because I do think there's interesting alignment in the interests of Saudi Arabia and the interests of the US in this area, my view is essentially that we should engage in collaboration that utilizes both of our kind of unique advantages. Saudi Arabia geographically, is you know, an interesting point for bringing in raw materials. They're also pretty flexible when it comes to developing processing, which they do plenty of, for oil. It's a different process. But still, they have a lot of industrial knowledge, engineering knowledge, and they have an interest in diversifying their economy. So I think there's some room for collaboration there. I think there's also, as I mentioned in the article, room for joint financing between Saudi Arabia and the US in different mineral projects, because that is a huge problem around the world, where American companies either aren't fast enough or are bogged down for different reasons, and you just can't acquire these mining sites around the world, so I think it is very important to be clear about the parameters of cooperation with other countries, and at the end of the day, the safest way to get minerals, the cleanest way, the way it probably benefits Americans the most by providing good paying jobs and Keeping industry in a much more secure place than it has been historically, is to do things, you know, here at home, we need to be flexible. Obviously, you know, some of these minerals are only accessible in, you know, one or two countries around the world. But I think to the extent that we can, we ought to be self sufficient in a number of these minerals well. And

Brian Nichols  12:17  
this is where, like, you know, the whole America first narrative really has gotten legs, because it's one thing to say, Listen, I don't want to, I don't want to go engage in foreign conflicts with countries across the world, just because we know we're the, we're the world's policeman, right? Like, not, none of that. But when you look at, well, what, what's the argument, not just from, you know, we're going to be the world's policeman, but like, the what's in it for us kind of mentality, because in sales, by the way, that is 1,000% the first thing that your prospect is always thinking about is, is the what's in it for me? So as an American, and this is, again, where that American first sentiment comes from. They say, Well, what's in it for me? Well, you're gonna get these rare earth minerals, right? They're gonna help power society, okay? Can I get that somewhere else? You could, right? And then, then it turns into, okay, well, why aren't we? And this is where I think, you know, not only this conversation, but you look at the overarching, you know, conversation around America's influence abroad. You look at the the manner in which the whole Trump tariff narrative has been rolled out, which I have been steadfast on this show, I don't like tariffs. I think they're terrible from an economic standpoint. They hurt the the consumer at the end of the day. They they disrupt supply chains, they create economic confusion and uncertainty. And yet, if you're only using them as a negotiation tool to go back towards an underlying like, you know, free market value, like, Hey, I don't like tariffs, and I don't want tariffs on me, which is, I don't want tariffs on you. So let's use this as a negotiation chip to, you know, try to eliminate tariffs, right? Like everything that's been promoted. Though, right now, in the past few months, under the Trump administration, has felt like it's more of a listen, it's not that we're trying to shut off from the rest of the world, but we're trying to not only ask the rest of the world to play fair, but also we're trying to get America to start doing more, producing more itself, versus just constantly outsourcing, right, outsourcing our minerals to these foreign countries, or outsourcing our, you know, our big AI processing chips out to Taiwan. Or you go through the list of where we have, we've delegated the responsibility to other countries, and then there comes a very real cost to that, where we're paying for it now, especially when things get hot, from a foreign conflict standpoint. So I guess, you know, I know I'm just repeating what we just agreed to, but it just comes down to in my brain, we have to be able to walk and cheat them at the same time, right? Like, we have to be able to try to engage in true free and fair trade on a global scale, but the same point in time, like, don't just do that, do that, plus try to make things better at home. Like, don't just say hey, you know, we're going to try to engage in more free market deals, or free trade deals for. Oil and Gas when we have the Keystone pipeline in our backyard that we just arbitrarily shut down because of feelings, right? Like, that's the stuff that your average person is like, Dude, come on. Like, you say on one side, we need this, and then you do this. It just there seems to be a really big disconnect between what the American electorate wants and what the American politicians and policy providers actually are putting forth for making things better? Does that make sense?

Speaker 1  15:26  
Yeah, absolutely. I think there's obviously a lot to get into that I can spend quite a long time talking about, with respect to the tariffs. I think obviously there's quite a lot going on, and quite a bit that's not being reported in the news right now, for instance, regarding potential deals. So I'm going to wait to look at some of the specifics of those. But I think when it comes to critical minerals and a number of other things, I think the American public has been very poorly served by the kind of thought that says it doesn't really matter where you know our steel comes from, where our raw materials come from, and you know the number of our manufactured products, where they come from, as long as they're cheaper. Because I think what you know, the critical mineral issue really exemplifies, and you know, kind of highlights for a number of other things is that matter where these things come from. And just because, you know, Cobalt is, you know, slightly less expensive because it comes from Chinese mines in the DRC and then goes to Chinese refineries in China, just because it's, you know, slightly less expensive doesn't mean that there's this huge underappreciated cost in terms of security, in terms of reliance, and recently, I've been paying a lot of attention to what's happened at British Steel, which I wouldn't expect people in America to be paying attention to. That's one of the things

Speaker 2  16:54  
that I even heard of British Steel. So I'm glad you brought it up. Yes.

Speaker 1  16:59  
So short story is it was purchased by a Chinese company in 2020 and then in the last few months, that company has said that it's not economically feasible to run this primary steel producer. And the British government, recognizing that it's important for a civilized, industrialized country to be able to produce its own steel. Tried to offer them raw materials, basically trying to subsidize steel mill to keep it open. Because part of the issue is that if these steel furnaces go down below a certain temperature, they basically become unusable, ever again,

Brian Nichols  17:39  
ever again. And what happened in

Speaker 1  17:41  
the end, this Chinese company just kept refusing, refusing. And what happened is parliament, you know, came into session on a Saturday, passed an emergency bill. They gave them the authority to, you know, take over operations, and you stepped in and kept things running. But I think that points to, you know, very unfortunate dynamic that I think, you know, this whole conversation on tariffs puts us in a better direction on, which is that it really does matter where you get some of these essential inputs from. And there's something I've written about the British Steel matter, and it's actually very interesting timing that Vice President Vance, just the other day, went to a steel plant in South Carolina nuclear steel, and you talked about exactly these issues, saying that it absolutely does matter from that geo strategic standpoint, where these raw materials and manufacture products come from, in that geopolitical sense, but it also matters for Americans, because a lot of these plants, in a way that I think is unique to these, you know, additive processes. They provide stable hours, good wages and a sense of pride in what you make. And I think all of that, just you know, points to a very complicated picture that will, you know, make us go through some tough decisions about what it is we need to produce here. But I think, I think it's a conversation worth having, and we're having it as a result of these tariffs.

Brian Nichols  19:08  
I know we've had this conversation many a time in the show about, you know, just the fact that America has really become, over the past, like 50 years, the the outsourced country, right? If there's dirty work we don't want to do? We outsource it, and we've become very much a service type of country where a large percentage of Americans find themselves serving or working in some type of role that is more or less a service industry, right? And, you know, I'm in the sales and technology space, so I lead sales teams. I do coaching for sales teams. I'm not selling myself personally, a physical product or service or good. I'm selling solutions. I'm selling like knowledge, information, and it is very hard to tangibly quantify the value of something in that world relative to I have, you know, I have this hacky sack, right? And this hacky sack is full. Of diamonds barrel, sure. And I know that, based on the size of this hacky sack, that there's going to be, you know, a certain value to the diamonds they're in. By the way, this hacky sack doesn't have diamonds, but if it did, right, like that, that would be a very easy thing to actually quantify and sell. And I think there has very much been a discrepancy between the, in this case, the overvaluation of certain service jobs or service skills. And we look no further than over the past five years of the, you know, the Black Lives Matter, dei mentality of, well, you know, I'm a dei specialist. I'm gonna go teach your, your fortune 500 company, how to get rid of your your racist, your hidden, coded racist practices internally. And I'm gonna charge, I don't know, $850,000 Sure. Why not? Right? You're gonna pay it, sure. And you see that that's a cost. But is there value behind that cost? I'm saying all this Farrell, because the like the back to the hacky sack, right? This hacky sack was full of diamonds. I know that there is a tangible value, a tangible cost, to what these diamonds have therein. And I think what we're seeing right now is very much like the the service industry fight back. It's like in Star Wars, right? The Empire Strikes Back. The service industry fights back because the service industry is seeing that the ability to, in many instances, create an arbitrary, you know, value, cost standpoint, that they can pass on to the consumer, is now being threatened because we are bringing a lot of these, you know, these very tangible black and white value these. Again, the hacky sack. I know what this is going to cost, and now you're actually having to bring this back to United States shores in some instances, and those service jobs are in other areas starting to disappear for whatever reason. So I say all that, like, do you think that we are at the beginning of a retransformation, going back to like, the foundations of what made America great. Like, what are we seeing right now with the changing economy here in America? Yeah,

Speaker 1  22:16  
not to get semantic, I think I would phrase as going forward, not necessarily going back. Sorry, can you see me? I'm here. Sorry, sorry. My approach to this comes from studying geopolitics, national security, and I think you can point to the 1990s you know, letting China into the WTO as you know, kind of a changing point where we assume that, you know, markets would make, say, China, more like us, and would serve as a bulwark against, you know, some of these national security concerns. I don't think that's played out necessarily. And I think when it comes to, you know what you're talking about with, say, you know, manufacturing, services, I think you know it's all obviously, you know, part of the American economy. And I think there's actually much less of a bright line, you say, in manufacturing, for instance, between, you know, some of the knowledge work and some of the hands on producing things, because obviously it takes quite a lot of knowledge, and especially stuff that you can't necessarily learn in a book. It's something that you have to learn by doing a process over and over so that you can learn how to do it in kind of an expert way. I think the manufacturing side actually isn't necessarily so dissimilar from, you know, what people call the knowledge economy. I think the important thing to recognize, though, is, is that you know, in in a conflict, you need access, you need you need bullets, essentially, among many other things. But if you don't have the materials to produce that, and you're reliant on countries, people who you don't entirely trust, to provide those to you. No, for all of the skill that we have in engineering and design, if you don't have the raw materials, if you don't have the capacity to produce these things, you're in a very difficult position.

Brian Nichols  24:17  
Truth, feral. Truth, well, listen, I just looked at the clock. I can't believe we're already hard pressed for time. So here's we're gonna do. We're gonna here's we're going to do. We're going to go to our final thoughts today. And I'm just going to, you know, I'll very quickly summarize my final thoughts is that the world's changing, right? And you better keep up if you're, if you're in a world right now where you're doing something in the service industry that is very non I was gonna say, not valuable, but, you know, maybe not, not just a, maybe you're getting paid a little too much, and you you kind of know it, but you're like, oh, whatever, the world's changing, right? You know, we're seeing this right now, very much a going back to the fundamentals, which, you know when I teach my sales teams, right? I have to help them almost unlearn things first. And. Then start from the foundations, because if it's like a football player, right? If I'm teaching a guy for offensive line or defensive line, which, believe it or not, I'm six foot five, and I used to play football, you know, 300 pound, big, old guy. Back in the day, I was a defensive lineman and offensive lineman. So when you're teaching an offensive lineman or a defensive lineman how to to properly engage with an opposing player right? Doesn't matter how big, how strong, how mean, like, doesn't matter any of that stuff. If your technique is wrong. I could take a mammoth human being as a defensive lineman and have him go against a short, stocky, powerful, you know, offensive player, and if that offensive player using technique and leverage, is able to get under that guy's pads. He's going to knock that guy onto his ass, like 10 times out of 10, because the technique and the fundamentals matter infinitely more than just your natural physical stature, or, you know, your big, mean, tough personality, right? Like you have to do things the right way. When I'm teaching a sales team. Same thing. If I go in and I'm talking to a sales guy and I just see him show up to a discovery meeting and he is just throwing up features and benefits. And I'm like, my brother in Christ, like, good luck if you think you're going to sell something to someone by just going through a spreadsheet and reading off like, well, I'm selling this hacky sack. Going back to my hacky sack, it's nice. It's brown. It has, you know, it's malleable. It makes a fun noise, right? Isn't that great? Like that? That doesn't mean anything, right? What matters is going back to how do we sell things? We sell things based on finding a problem, understanding that problem, and the way it impacts the ability for that person to do their job or to find a positive outcome, and then we overcome that objection by presenting a real solution, right? So I say all that to go back to what we're looking at right now. From an economic standpoint, we are almost having a transition back to the fundamentals, right? We can talk about doing all the fun extra things, right? Like, yes, if you're that defensive lineman, I want you nasty, I want you tough, but I also want you doing things smart. I want you things doing the right way. So I say all that to bring this together. I think we're going to see, right now very much a going back to the basics, understanding the basic tackling and blocking, right that the fundamentals, this is the stuff that matters. And when we look at critical minerals, not in our Cheerios, but rather in the everyday products we use across the country on a daily basis to understand that it is not just, you know, important to to get access to these from building these deals and relationships with countries that maybe don't like us so much. But rather, let's start focusing at home, right? Let's start doing what we can do here at home, not because we have some nationalist pride and you know, oh, we got to bring these working class jobs back, no, but it goes back to if you're stretching yourself too thin, obviously you're going to have areas that you're going to be weaker, right? And it's on us to do, almost like a business SWOT analysis. We do our strengths, our weaknesses, our opportunities and our threats. We got to do that as a country, right? And looking at it from an economic standpoint, from a supply chain standpoint, definitely some red flags there. I'm thinking that we're going to start getting back to again, the basics we will we will definitely see but Faro, that's my final thoughts for today. Bring us home. What do you have for us? And, of course, what's your final call to action for the audience today? Sure.

Speaker 1  28:11  
So just given that, I think, put at the high level that America's war fighting ability, you know, our security is imperiled by this dynamic in which we've detached trade from national security, pretending like it doesn't matter where we get a lot of these raw materials from. I think this has a number of, you know, downstream effects and the solutions after, you know, decades and decades of this kind of fantasy, other solutions, complicated. It's going to require some tough decisions. And as part of it, as I mentioned, we I think we should work with other countries where our interests align, and if they don't, I think we should do things on our own. But Saudi Arabia, we could work with them. But that is, you know, a part of a larger strategy, I think for that, lot of tools need to be used to incentivize domestic raw material production, domestic manufacturing. That's tax credits, that's price floors, and in parts, that's tariffs. I think it's a very interesting question. Do we agree we could use those, and I would just encourage people to try to be aware of what inputs go into the things you rely on. Because if you take one item in your household you really rely on, and start to think about how much of it comes from other countries who don't have your best interests in mind, I think you'll start to take very seriously the benefits of not having to worry about whether other countries will let you have cars or military equipment. I mean, at the end of the day, America should be able to stand on its own two legs. And I believe self sufficiency in a lot of these areas is part of that.

Brian Nichols  29:58  
It's like a call to action. It's a hybrid between that and Leonard reads, I pencil, right? For folks who, who've never read I pencil, it goes through the story of a pencil and how all the different pieces of the pencil, if you were to just sit down and say, Hey, feral, make a pencil, right? Like, yeah, we know what goes into a pencil, kind of, but do we know how to actually, like, like, curate all these different materials that we need, and how to actually put these materials together in such a way that it makes a pencil and, oh, by the way, the pencil that if we were to see it on the side of the road, we'd probably just like, walk past it, because it's just, you know, it is. It's just a thing. Like, I don't really, I mean, pencils are everywhere, right? But when you go into what goes into a pencil, right? That's the part people like, the brain explodes. Actually, my good friend Julie Borowski, she was here on the show. She did a show or a book, very similar to I pencil, but it was more for kids. And it's called, nobody knows how to make a pizza. And just the idea you go into, you know, where all these different ingredients come from. And you know, you go into how you create the dough and the yeast, and, like, you know, the mushrooms and the pepperoni, and, like, the process of the pepperoni, and all of a sudden, you stand back and you're like, holy cow, there's a lot of people and a lot of different mechanisms that go into making all the ingredients that I need in order to make a pizza, right? But being able to say, that's great, I want those mechanisms to be more secure, more cost, affordable, and hey, by the way, if we could do it here at home, even better. So I definitely hear you far I think there's been a great conversation. Folks, please go ahead and check out Farrell's article again over at Real Clear world, that article is the US Saudi cooperation could fortify critical mineral supply chains. You can find that again over at Real Clear world and Farrell, where can folks? Go ahead and support you. Learn more. Continue the conversation over on social media. Is you got any links for us or email addresses hit us with it

Speaker 1  31:45  
sure memo would be my x, which is E, the letter E, Ferrell, Gregory, F, A, R, R, E, L, L. Gregory, there

Brian Nichols  31:54  
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